Just 60% firms plan to bring back all furloughed staff fulltime

A global survey carried out by ManpowerGroup has revealed that only 60% of global employers plan to bring back furloughed workers full time because of a “slower than anticipated” recovery. Approximately 19% of firms said they will offer staff reduced hours, 9% plan permanent layoffs and 12% are still undecided. Employers in China, France, Poland and Portugal are the most optimistic about bringing back all furloughed workers, while India, Singapore, Mexico and Hong Kong the least.

Employers now believe the labour market recovery will take longer than first anticipated back in April. Just 18% expect hiring to return to pre-pandemic levels by October this year. However, 13% believe recovery will not return until after June 2021 with 18% predicting “no return to normal”, according to the latest ManpowerGroup Q4 Employment Outlook Survey.

The study of over 38,000 employers in 43 countries also revealed that over half (59%) employers globally are planning to offer staff flexible work options for the long-term. Employers in Greece, Singapore, Belgium, the Netherlands and Australia are leading the way in offering hybrid styles of remote working some of the time, while China, the US, Poland, Hong Kong and India are offering the least flexibility to their workforces. Employers intend to offer more opportunities for their employees to learn and develop new skills (31%) alongside more health and wellbeing benefits (30%) as the demands of workers shift with many hoping to leverage a hybrid-working model that better blends work and home.

TWO-SPEED RECOVERY

On a positive note, global hiring intentions have improved in 37 of the 43 countries involved in the survey. Taiwan, the US, Turkey and Japan report the strongest outlooks while Panama, Costa Rica, South Africa and Colombia report the weakest. 

“These results reveal that employers now expect the recovery to take longer than they first anticipated and are preparing to go back to the future of work not the past,” stated ManpowerGroup Chairman and CEO Jonas Prising.  “On one hand the lasting legacy of the pandemic will be new work models with more flexible work, more focus on health and wellbeing, and more skills development. On the other – a two speed recovery with some industries including manufacturing, professional services and construction beginning to bounce back while others like Hospitality and travel are impacted for the long term. Though the full impact of various job-retention schemes introduced to support workers remains to be seen, we can be certain that helping people adapt from declining industries to growth roles will be critical. It is the responsibility of business, government and educators to support people with swift, targeted upskilling programs so that value creation is shared with the many, not just the few.”

GLOBAL HIRING OUTLOOK

Here are the global hiring intentions by region, according to the ManpowerGroup Q4 Employment Outlook Survey:

Americas

• Employers in the US report the most optimistic hiring plans with a Net Employment Outlook of +14%, increasing by 11 percentage points from the cautious Outlook of +3% reported in Q3. Strongest hiring plans are reported by employers in the leisure and hospitality sector (+22%) and the transportation and utilities sector (+19%). 
• In Mexico, employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +1%, a 10-percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter though declining by 8 percentage points year-over-year. 
• Brazilian employers report improved though still negative hiring prospects for the next three months with a Net Employment Outlook of -3%, an increase of 11 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter.

EMEA 

• The most optimistic Outlooks are reported in Turkey (+10%), Greece (+8%) and Poland (+5%) while the weakest are expected in South Africa (-13%), the UK (-8%) and Croatia (-6%). 
• UK employers anticipate a weak yet improved hiring pace in the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -8%. Hiring intentions increase 4 percentage from previous quarter. 
• Employers in France report a Net Employment Outlook of +3%. The restaurants and hotels sector anticipates the weakest hiring pace with an Outlook of -6%, improving by a steep margin of 47 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but declining by 19 percentage points year-over-year. 

APAC

• Employers in Taiwan report the strongest outlooks, while the weakest and only negative outlook globally is expected in Hong Kong. 
• Employers in China report modest hiring intentions for the October to December time frame with a Net Employment Outlook of +4%, remaining relatively stable quarter-over-quarter (+3% in Q3) and unchanged when compared with this time one year ago. 

To view the complete results of the latest Q4 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, click here.