The majority of young Americans believe AI will eliminate many traditional entry-level jobs, so 92% have changed their career strategy in response to today’s labour market, and almost half seriously considering a skilled trade, new research reveals.
Artificial intelligence and economic uncertainty are prompting young Americans to rethink traditional career paths, with 80% believing AI will eliminate many entry-level jobs and 92% already changing at least one aspect of their career strategy in response to the changing jobs market. New research from Thumbtack reveals that more than 80% of young people surveyed believe it has become harder to build a stable career than it was just a few years ago, while 52% believe career paths are less stable than ever. Only around one-third say they are currently on a defined career path.
Against that backdrop, skilled trades are attracting serious attention. Nearly nine in 10 have investigated skilled trades, while almost half are either learning a trade or seriously considering one. Some 30% say AI itself has made them more interested in skilled trades, while 82% believe trades offer better long-term job security than many office jobs. And three in four believe the trades could become one of the smartest career choices for their generation.
The findings raise a much bigger question about the future of work. If AI begins removing some of the traditional first rungs of the white-collar career ladder, where will the next generation go to acquire skills, experience and economic security?
CHANGING CAREER STRATEGY
The traditional career playbook appears increasingly uncertain for many of the young people surveyed. Some 92% have made at least one change to their career strategy in response to the current jobs market, while more than a quarter are seriously considering changing their long-term education plans or have already decided to do so.
Even young people who have completed university are questioning conventional routes into work. More than one in four respondents with a bachelor’s degree said college made them more interested in jobs that don’t require a degree, while one in four questioned whether their degree was the right path for their goals.
The findings emerge as growing numbers of companies say AI is already affecting entry-level recruitment. Recent research found 21% of companies surveyed had already stopped hiring entry-level employees because of AI, while 36% expected to have done so by the end of 2026. Separate research found 62% of workers believe employers are reducing entry-level hiring because AI is replacing routine tasks, although only 31% said they had actually observed entry-level opportunities declining in their own industry.
That distinction is important. The eventual impact of AI on employment remains uncertain, and the latest Thumbtack findings measure young people’s expectations about AI’s impact, rather than demonstrating that four in five entry-level jobs will disappear. Nevertheless, those expectations appear to be influencing real career decisions.
FIRST RUNG OF THE CAREER LADDER IS CHANGING
The potential erosion of entry-level work creates a challenge that goes beyond unemployment. Junior roles have traditionally given young people the chance to develop skills they cannot easily learn in a classroom, from professional judgement and communication to teamwork, problem-solving, client management, understanding organisational culture and learning from experienced colleagues.
If organisations automate too many of the routine tasks traditionally assigned to junior employees without creating alternative ways for people to enter professions and learn, businesses could inadvertently weaken their own future talent pipelines. The problem has already emerged in the UK. As Fair Play Talks recently reported, Britain has been warned that the first rung of the career ladder is becoming increasingly difficult for young people to reach. More recent official figures show around 981,000 UK young people aged 16 to 24 are not in employment, education or training (NEET), equivalent to 13% of the age group.
The challenge cannot simply be attributed to young people lacking ambition. The Government-commissioned Young People and Work review found 84% of NEET young people surveyed want a job, education or training. AI is not the sole cause of that wider youth employment challenge, but its potential impact on junior work makes the question of alternative entry routes increasingly important.
SKILLED TRADES EMERGE AS AN ALTERNATIVE
For many young Americans surveyed by Thumbtack, the skilled trades increasingly represent one such route. Some 82% believe skilled trades offer better long-term job security than many office jobs, while three-quarters believe they may become one of the smartest career choices for their generation. A majority say they view trades more positively than they did five years ago, while nearly three-quarters consider them part of a “New American Dream”. Almost nine in 10 have looked into skilled trades, with nearly half either learning or seriously considering one.
The findings do not show that young people are abandoning university or that skilled trades offer the right path for every young person. Indeed, interest in trades among Gen Z is not entirely new. Thumbtack’s 2024 research found 55% of Gen Z respondents were considering a skilled-trades career, up 12 percentage points from the previous year.
However, the studies use different age ranges and survey designs, so we should not treat them as a direct year-on-year trend. What has changed is the context in which young people are making those decisions. In 2026, 30% explicitly say AI has made them more interested in the trades.
AI DOESN’T MEAN CHOOSING BETWEEN TECH AND THE TRADES
Yet the emerging picture is more complicated than young people simply moving away from AI-exposed office work towards occupations untouched by technology. AI is entering the skilled trades too. Some 35% of Thumbtack professionals use AI regularly in their businesses, particularly for marketing, customer communication and research.
Across all tradespeople surveyed, three in five have used AI for their business, with marketing cited by 33%, customer communication by 30% and research by 23%. Usage is particularly high among newcomers. Some 52% of professionals with less than two years’ experience routinely use AI. But adoption is not confined to younger workers. More than one-quarter of professionals with at least 20 years’ experience use AI regularly, while nearly one in six tradespeople aged over 60 also use it. Only 3% identify AI replacing tradespeople as their biggest business concern.
DEVELOPING REAL EXPERTISE
Instead, 29% are concerned about ensuring workers develop real expertise before relying on AI, 24% about preserving craftsmanship in a technology-driven era and 33% about helping customers understand the value of human expertise over AI-generated advice.
Marco Zappacosta, Co-founder and CEO of Thumbtack, believes technology and practical skills will increasingly work together. “As AI reshapes the workforce, America’s need for skilled labour is only becoming more urgent,” he said. “The opportunity isn’t to choose between technology and the trades, it’s to bring them together. AI can help skilled professionals become more productive, build stronger businesses and spend more time doing the work only they can do.”
That could prove an important distinction for the future of work. The emerging labour market may not divide neatly between jobs that use AI and jobs that do not. Instead, technology could change how work is performed across occupations while increasing the value of complementary capabilities that remain fundamentally human, including judgement, craftsmanship, interpersonal skills and practical expertise.
CAREER SWITCHERS INTO THE TRADES
The changing workforce is not limited to Gen Z. Among Thumbtack professionals with less than two years in the industry, 38% previously worked in a corporate or white-collar career. Another 26% entered the trades following burnout and a desire for a career reset.
Thumbtack says newer professionals are twice as likely as other tradespeople to have transitioned from white-collar careers. Flexibility and entrepreneurship are also important attractions. Across the professionals surveyed, 47% cited wanting a more flexible schedule, while 58% were attracted by the opportunity to own a business.
The experience appears positive for many. Nearly eight in 10 Thumbtack professionals would recommend a skilled trade to a young person. Among the newest entrants, half or more report rising demand and income.
APPRENTICESHIPS COULD BECOME EVEN MORE IMPORTANT
Strong interest in trades does not automatically translate into a viable career. Young people still need opportunities to acquire practical skills and workplace experience. “There’s a lot of interest from young people who want to learn the trades,” said Deon Marecheau, owner of Antillean Restoration and Thumbtack Pro Advisor. “Bringing apprentices onto our team gives us a chance to develop talented people who can grow with our business or take those skills wherever their career leads.” The importance of creating those routes extends beyond skilled trades.
As Fair Play Talks recently explored in Google’s expansion of youth mentoring as AI reshapes entry-level work, mentoring, work experience and direct employer contact could become increasingly important if traditional junior roles become harder to access. Similarly, Sainsbury’s recently announced 10,000 work-experience opportunities amid the UK’s youth employment crisis.
AI can increasingly perform some of the routine administrative and analytical work traditionally given to people at the beginning of their careers. But those tasks have historically provided an environment in which young people learn how work actually works. That means apprenticeships, mentoring, vocational education and meaningful work experience could become more important as AI advances – not less.
TRADESPEOPLE REMAIN OPTIMISTIC – BUT RUNNING A BUSINESS ISN’T EASY
The research also challenges any assumption that strong demand automatically makes skilled trades an easy career option. Nearly half of Thumbtack professionals report higher demand and income than a year ago, while almost three-quarters turned away work during the past year.
However, professionals most commonly rejected jobs because they were not the right fit (44%) or were not profitable enough (43%). Tradespeople also face pressure from low-cost competition, increasingly price-sensitive customers and significant administrative workloads.
Almost half spend more than one-quarter of their working week on administration. That is another area where AI could potentially help: automating or simplifying some of the business administration surrounding practical work rather than attempting to replace the human expertise at the heart of the job.
The findings suggest that solving skills shortages will require more than simply encouraging young people into trades. New entrants also need the training, technology, mentoring and business support required to turn practical skills into sustainable careers.
STRONGEST DEMAND FOR SKILLED TRADES
Thumbtack also used marketplace data to assess US metropolitan areas according to professional supply and homeowner demand. Its top 10 markets positioned for the future of skilled labour are:
- Washington, D.C.
- Charlotte
- Atlanta
- Raleigh-Durham
- Baltimore
- Chicago
- West Palm Beach
- Austin
- Seattle
- Dallas
The rankings use an index incorporating the number of available professionals per capita, growth in professional supply, customer projects per professional, projects per capita and year-on-year growth in customer demand.
THE CHALLENGE EXTENDS BEYOND THE US
The Thumbtack findings relate specifically to young Americans, but questions about how AI could reshape early careers are increasingly being raised elsewhere. In London, a major AI and Jobs Taskforce recently warned of a quieter transformation involving fewer entry-level roles and weaker career ladders, rather than simply mass job losses.
As Fair Play Talks reported, the Mayor of London has backed £30 million of investment to help workers, young people and businesses prepare for AI. Its recommendations include bringing employers and young people together to help co-design future jobs and career pathways, alongside greater investment in workplace experience and skills such as judgement, communication, creativity, collaboration and problem-solving.
Britain is simultaneously attempting to tackle a wider youth employment problem. The Government has introduced a Jobs Guarantee intended to help young people move into employment, while the TUC is calling for the scheme to be substantially expanded. New TUC analysis estimates an expanded 225,000-place Jobs Guarantee could deliver almost £4.6 billion in long-term benefits to the public finances.
Although the labour markets and policy environments differ, the underlying challenge is similar: how do societies create credible first steps into sustainable careers when technology is changing some of the traditional routes in?
WHAT EMPLOYERS & POLICYMAKERS SHOULD DO NEXT
Protect routes into work
Organisations adopting AI should consider not only which junior tasks can be automated, but how future employees will acquire the skills those tasks previously helped them develop. Eliminating entry-level work without creating alternative pathways risks creating future shortages of experienced talent.
Expand apprenticeships and work-based learning
Interest in skilled trades needs to be matched with opportunities to acquire skills. Employers, educators and policymakers should expand apprenticeships, vocational training, mentoring and meaningful work experience – across both trades and professional occupations.
Widen the definition of a successful career
University and white-collar employment should not be presented as the only markers of career success. Young people need high-quality information about the full range of pathways available, including skilled trades, technical occupations, apprenticeships, entrepreneurship and emerging hybrid careers.
Prepare people to work across AI occupations
The Thumbtack findings demonstrate that AI skills are not exclusively relevant to office workers. Tradespeople are already using the technology for marketing, research, customer communication and running their businesses. Digital and AI literacy should therefore complement occupational expertise rather than be treated as an alternative to it.
Invest in human skills alongside tech
As AI handles more routine work, employers should deliberately develop the capabilities that complement it – including judgement, communication, creativity, problem-solving, relationship-building and practical expertise.
Support career switchers
The finding that 38% of newer Thumbtack professionals previously worked in corporate or white-collar roles suggests career pathways are becoming less linear. Training systems need to work not only for school-leavers, but also for adults who want or need to change direction throughout their working lives.
Help tradespeople build sustainable businesses
Strong demand alone is not enough. Training in pricing, finance, digital tools, customer acquisition and business management could help skilled professionals turn demand into sustainable income while reducing the administrative burden that takes them away from revenue-generating work.
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS
AI is often discussed in terms of which jobs it will replace and which it will create. But the Thumbtack findings point towards another consequence that could be just as important – AI may be changing how young people decide which careers are worth pursuing in the first place. Four in five young Americans surveyed believe AI will eliminate many traditional entry-level jobs. More than nine in 10 have already adjusted their career strategy in response to the wider jobs market. Almost half are learning or seriously considering a skilled trade.
Those figures should not be interpreted as evidence that an entire generation is abandoning office work for the trades – or that the trades themselves will somehow remain untouched by technological change. In fact, the opposite may be happening. AI is increasingly being incorporated into practical occupations too, helping skilled professionals communicate with customers, market their businesses, conduct research and potentially reduce administrative work.
CHANGING FUTURE OF WORK
The future of work may therefore be less about choosing between technology and human skills and more about finding the right combination of the two. For employers, that creates a responsibility to think beyond immediate efficiency gains.
If AI removes some of the routine tasks and junior roles through which previous generations learned their professions, businesses will need to create new ways for young people to gain experience, develop judgement and progress into more senior work.
For educators and policymakers, it means ensuring young people can see and access a wider range of credible routes into economic security – from university and professional careers to apprenticeships, technical education, entrepreneurship and skilled trades. And for young people themselves, the career question created by AI may not simply be: Which jobs will survive? It may increasingly be: Which combination of human skills, practical expertise and technology will give me a career that can keep evolving?
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